The owner of British Airways has warned that the war in Iran will saddle the group with a €2 billion fuel bill shock this year, taking the gloss off a bullish set of first-quarter numbers and forcing the City to rein in its profit expectations.
International Airlines Group (IAG), the FTSE 100 carrier that also owns Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus, told shareholders that surging jet fuel prices triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows, would push its annual fuel costs to about €9 billion, up from €7 billion in 2025.
Despite the warning, Luis Gallego, chief executive, struck a defiant note, insisting the group was “uniquely positioned” to ride out the turbulence. Crucially, IAG said it had no plans to mothball routes, having locked in supplies through its long-standing self-supply arrangements at its main hubs.
“We currently see no issues with fuel availability in our main markets, particularly as we benefit from the strength of our supply chain, stocks and particularly our self-supply arrangements at our key hubs,” Mr Gallego said. “We are confident in fuel availability through the summer.”
The reassurance will be welcomed by holidaymakers and the City alike, which had feared a repeat of the operational chaos that plagued European carriers during previous oil shocks. Mr Gallego pointed to the group’s “leading positions across diverse markets, strong brands, structurally high margins and strong balance sheet” as a buffer against the geopolitical squall.
In a clear signal of confidence, IAG confirmed it would press ahead with its €1.5 billion share buyback, a programme it green-lit only the day before American and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran in late February. The conflict has since dominated a third of the airline’s first trading quarter.
The numbers, in fact, suggest the group went into the conflict with the wind at its back. Revenues edged up almost 2 per cent to €7.1 billion in the three months to the end of March, while pre-tax profits leapt 77 per cent to €351 million, driven largely by punchy demand for premium-economy, business and first-class seats on the all-important transatlantic corridor. North Atlantic flying accounts for roughly half of IAG’s capacity, and well-heeled travellers turning left as they board are a disproportionate driver of its margins.
IAG said it had hedged about 70 per cent of its fuel needs for the rest of the year, having either forward-bought kerosene or taken out financial instruments to cap its exposure to spot prices. That insulation, the group conceded, will not last indefinitely.
“Whilst the first quarter was relatively unaffected by the Middle East conflict we expect it to have a more substantial impact throughout the rest of the year as the increase in the fuel cost starts to manifest itself,” the company said.
The upshot: profits in 2026 will fall short of the figure pencilled in at the start of the year. IAG booked operating profits of more than €5 billion in 2025, and analysts had been forecasting earnings growth of up to 10 per cent this year before the Iran flare-up sent oil markets spinning.
The Middle East is not the only soft patch on the route map. IAG flagged that demand into the eastern Mediterranean had, predictably, weakened, while the European short-haul market, where British Airways and Vueling go toe-to-toe with Ryanair and easyJet, “remains competitive”. Aer Lingus, meanwhile, continues to feel the heat from American carriers piling capacity onto the lucrative Ireland-United States corridor.
For SME suppliers across the British and Irish aviation supply chain, from in-flight caterers to ground handlers and MRO specialists, the message is mixed. Capacity is holding up, premium demand is robust, and IAG’s commercial machine is plainly still firing. But with the airline’s own profit ambitions clipped by geopolitics, the pressure on margins will inevitably cascade down the food chain over the coming quarters.
For investors, the read-across is familiar: IAG remains one of the more resilient operators in European aviation, but the Iran war has reminded the market that even the best-run airlines fly at the mercy of the oil price.
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IAG braces for €2bn fuel bill shock as Iran conflict tests British Airways owner