UK businesses are entering the latest global energy shock in a significantly weaker financial position than during the 2022 Ukraine crisis, raising concerns that the current conflict in the Middle East could trigger a faster and more severe wave of corporate distress.
New data from the Weil European Distress Index shows that financial pressures on European companies had already moved into “distress territory” before the escalation of tensions involving Iran, leaving firms with far less capacity to absorb another energy-driven shock.
The index, compiled by law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges, tracks the performance of more than 3,750 listed companies across Europe using indicators such as cashflow pressure, debt levels and returns on investment. It recorded a reading of 2.5 ahead of the current crisis, compared with -7 in February 2022, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, indicating a marked deterioration in corporate resilience.
The latest crisis has been driven by disruption to global oil and gas supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that carries around a fifth of the world’s energy exports. Escalating tensions, including attacks linked to Iranian-backed groups, have raised concerns about alternative routes such as the Red Sea also becoming unstable.
As a result, energy prices have surged sharply, with Brent crude climbing from around $60 at the start of the year to close to $115 a barrel. The spike is already feeding through into higher costs for businesses, from manufacturing and logistics to food production.
Andrew Wilkinson, a restructuring partner at Weil, warned that the pace of change is a key risk factor.
“If energy prices remain elevated and confidence continues to weaken, we could see stress build more quickly than in previous cycles,” he said.
Among major European economies, the UK is seen as especially vulnerable. The index ranks Britain as one of the most distressed markets in Europe, behind only Germany and France, but identifies it as the most exposed to rising borrowing costs.
The resurgence in inflation, driven largely by higher energy prices, is expected to limit the ability of the Bank of England to cut interest rates, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of further tightening.
Higher rates would increase the cost of servicing debt for businesses, many of which are already operating with reduced financial headroom after several years of economic disruption.
The UK’s economic backdrop adds to the concern. Recent data from the Office for National Statistics showed that growth stalled in January, highlighting the fragility of the recovery even before the latest energy shock.
At the same time, unemployment has risen to 5.2 per cent, its highest level since early 2021, further weighing on economic momentum and consumer demand.
The combination of weak growth, rising costs and tighter financial conditions creates a challenging environment for businesses, particularly those with high energy exposure or significant debt burdens.
The outlook is further clouded by global factors. The OECD has already warned that the UK is likely to suffer the largest growth hit among G20 economies as a result of the conflict, underlining the scale of the challenge.
Rising energy costs are also expected to squeeze household incomes, reducing consumer spending and adding another layer of pressure on businesses.
Unlike in 2022, when many companies entered the energy crisis with relatively strong balance sheets and access to cheap financing, today’s environment is characterised by higher debt levels and tighter credit conditions.
This leaves firms with fewer options to absorb shocks, increasing the risk of insolvencies and restructuring activity if conditions deteriorate further.
The latest data suggests that the current energy crisis could unfold more rapidly than previous episodes, with financial stress building at a quicker pace across the corporate sector.
For the UK, the combination of high energy dependence, rising interest rates and weak growth creates a particularly challenging mix.
As the conflict in the Middle East continues to evolve, businesses face a period of heightened uncertainty, one in which resilience will be tested and the margin for error is significantly reduced.
Read more:
UK firms enter new energy crisis weaker than in 2022, distress index warns