Oil and gas prices extended their sharp climb this week as the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran disrupts shipping through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Crude oil futures surged again on Thursday (March 5), with the US benchmark climbing roughly 3.5 percent to about US$77 per barrel—the highest level in more than a year. Brent crude rose nearly 3 percent to around US$83 per barrel.
The waterway, which separates Iran from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
Since the latest wave of hostilities began over the weekend, tanker traffic through the strait has largely stalled, with shipowners reluctant to transit the area amid continued missile attacks and drone strikes.
Energy prices have already surged roughly 15 percent since the conflict intensified. US gasoline prices are beginning to reflect the shock, rising nearly 9 percent in just one week. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the US climbed from US$2.98 before the attacks to about US$3.25, according to AAA.
Financial markets have responded cautiously. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.3 percent ahead of Thursday’s opening bell, while the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Nasdaq Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) futures also edged lower.
If prices remain elevated, analysts warn the surge could complicate the US Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation. Rising energy costs may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts this year, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer and potentially slowing economic growth.
‘If the strait were to close for an extended period of time, it would be among the greatest supply shocks in history, and the price of oil undoubtedly would escalate well over US$100,’ analysts from S&P Ratings said in a FocusEconomics update. ‘Given the importance of the strait and the substantial US military presence in the region, it’s highly doubtful the strait could be closed for an extended period of time.”
Continued attacks halt gulf trade
Meanwhile, supply disruptions are intensifying across the Middle East. Shipping data shows tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped dramatically, falling from about 40 vessels per day earlier this year to virtually none in recent days.
Hundreds of oil and gas carriers are now anchored outside the waterway waiting for the security situation to stabilize.
Attacks on commercial shipping have added to the uncertainty. A tanker anchored near Kuwait reported a large explosion on its port side earlier this week. The vessel reportedly suffered a cargo tank leak, although the crew was unharmed.
Other incidents have also been reported. At least nine vessels have come under attack since the conflict began, including tankers targeted by drones and explosive boats in Gulf waters.
Onshore energy infrastructure has also been affected. Several refineries in the region have cut operations or temporarily halted production, while Iraq reportedly reduced oil output by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day after storage capacity filled up when tankers were unable to load cargo.
Liquefied natural gas markets are also facing additional pressure after QatarEnergy halted production earlier this week and declared force majeure on exports. The state-owned firm is one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers, responsible for roughly 20 percent of global shipments.
European natural gas prices have surged in response, rising roughly 50 percent this week amid concerns that supply disruptions could tighten global markets heading into next winter’s storage season.
Despite the escalating crisis, global equity markets have shown signs of stabilizing. Asian stock markets rebounded Thursday after heavy losses earlier in the week, with South Korea’s KOSPI jumping nearly 10 percent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (INDEXNIKKEI:NI225) gaining about 1.9 percent.
Governments are also scrambling to stabilize shipping lanes. US President Donald Trump said Washington would offer political risk insurance for tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and indicated that U.S. naval forces could escort commercial vessels if necessary.
Insurance markets are also evaluating potential coverage frameworks for ships willing to transit the area, according to Lloyd’s of London.
“The implications for the global economy will depend largely on the duration and severity of the crisis. The real GDP of major advanced and emerging economies is far less dependent on oil than during past crises,’ Marc-Antoine Dumont, Senior Economist at Desjardins, and Randall Bartlett, Deputy Chief Economist, commented.
‘That said, Asia and China remain more exposed to the consequences of a prolonged disruption in Middle Eastern oil supply. On one hand, the US is now a net exporter of petroleum products, and a sustained increase in prices could even have positive spillovers for investment in the resource sector, which has struggled in recent years.”
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.