As a Democrat who’s been on winning and losing presidential campaigns against Donald Trump, it’s clear to me that the Republican Party’s top competitive edge in recent elections was its anti-establishment populist message. I say ‘message’ because actions always matter more than words — especially when the actions contradict the words. That’s happening now. Trump and Vance are breaking their promises to stand up for everyday Americans against corrupt elites.
The prices Trump and Vance ran on vowing to ‘immediately’ lower — groceries, healthcare, electricity bills – have gone up, while economic growth is down. We’re seeing ‘recession-level’ job loss and unprecedented welfare for the rich.
As a result, Trump and Vance are crippling Republicans’ flagship political advantage, creating new divides in their party and the country. Those shifts are big openings for Democrats on voters’ #1 issue, their finances. By the same token, if I were one of the Republicans already navigating the 2028 shadow primary, I’d see growing opportunities to outcompete JD Vance.
The Constitution blocks Trump from running again. Even if it didn’t, Trump’s diminishing energy levels and judgment make him a lame duck regardless. Case in point, the President of the United States is building himself an assisted-living theme park on the White House grounds while dismissing Americans’ concerns about affordability. This kind of antipopulist record is becoming significant baggage for Vance, making him a target for Republicans as well as Democrats.
For example, it’s hard to imagine anything less populist — or more un-Christian — than partying with billionaires while taking food away from working families. Or forcing middle class Americans to pick up the tab for AI datacenters backed by some of the richest companies in history.
In the Biden White House, we saw firsthand how damaging it is for the party in power if a majority of Americans rate the economy negatively. Voters’ economic sentiment sets the political tone.
In November, the party that controls Washington lost elections all over the country. From New Jersey Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, Democrats ran disciplined, cost-of-living campaigns. That issue has staying power and can unite Democrats with newly persuadable independents and Republicans. It happened again this week, with Republicans barely hanging onto a deep-red Tennessee congressional district.
Sadly, for those of us who can’t afford to ingratiate ourselves the Trump-Vance administration by purchasing Trump’s meme coin or joining Donald Trump Jr.’s ‘Executive Branch’ club, their agenda is sowing seeds for an even weaker economy.
First, there’s healthcare. Having already made the biggest Medicaid cuts in history, Washington Republicans want to terminate Democratic health care tax credits for working people, making premiums skyrocket for millions and taking coverage from more.
Second, tens of thousands are losing their jobs to AI – a rapidly accelerating trend. While it’s in America’s interest to lead the world when it comes to AI, the Trump-Vance administration — whose AI czar is himself a corrupt billionaire — is treating millions of Americans’ livelihoods as expendable, failing to equip workers for a successful economic future. By contrast, Democrats like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Jake Auchincloss are working to ensure we win the AI race while fighting to protect blue and white collar workers.
Then there’s energy. After raising electricity bills with the most severe clean energy cuts on record, Republican majorities are helping extremely rich people charge working families for their datacenters’ energy consumption. The Trump-Vance record on monopolistic megamergers will also come back to haunt them.
These realities all trap Vance between a rock and a hard place. Trump demands unquestioning loyalty from subordinates like Vance, but other likely candidates have more autonomy. For example, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green, has attacked the White House for high prices.
Greene isn’t alone among Republicans in distancing herself from the administration. When Nick Fuentes, a Holocaust-denying neo-Nazi, said ‘organized Jewry’ was the biggest threat to America, Trump and Vance’s response to Fuentes was pathetically weak. But Texas Senator Ted Cruz, another possible candidate, blasted Fuentes.
There’s also growing bipartisan opposition to the administration’s warmongering toward Venezuela. Americans don’t want servicemembers risking their lives to distract from a billionaire president’s falling approval ratings.
What has been Vance’s biggest asset with fellow Republicans –his closeness with Trump –could become his rivals’ key to undermining him. Democrats are doing it now. Last month, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a popular swing state Democrat, blasted Vance for taking food away from the hungry while cutting taxes for billionaires. Then he signed a new tax credit for working families into law, delivering $193 million in tax relief for 940,000 Pennsylvanians.
Republicans’ ‘Golden Age’ is turning into a second Gilded Age, where tax breaks for the wealthy are funded by higher costs for everyone else.
Across all political boundaries, Americans want leaders who will actually listen to them.