Having covered Ukraine and Russia for over three decades, especially the war between the two countries for the last several years, I’ve naturally been fascinated by the latest Trump administration effort to broker peace.
The reaction I’ve been getting from contacts in Ukraine to the 28-point plan to end the war is not all that positive.
‘It’s not worth the paper it’s written on,’ said one observer.
‘Any deal would have to include Ukraine … and Europe,’ noted another.
The overall consensus of analysts is that the document is slanted heavily toward Moscow. The man at the center of things, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has been diplomatic in various statements, basically saying he’s ‘reviewing the points’ aiming at arriving at a ‘dignified peace.’
There are all sorts of talks happening now between the U.S. and Ukraine and among European leaders. We’re even hearing from Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s no wonder. The stakes in this war for Europe and the world are enormous. If I were to send a quick note to Zelenskyy, it would go something like this:
Dear Volodymyr,
So far so good. You haven’t freaked out, and you’re promising to engage. Rejection of this plan out of hand would have been a non-starter.
You’re staying cool (though a bit grim and determined), and you’re talking to people.
My overall advice is … pick your fights, don’t sweat the small stuff and keep the big picture in mind.
I know what your country is going through. Every time I’m in Kyiv, I go to the same military cemetery outside the city, and it keeps getting bigger and bigger and sadder.
So, as to the points of the plan: There are a lot of easy ‘gimmes’ to Russia. Re-joining the G8. Gradual dropping of sanctions. Granting of amnesty for everything Russian troops have done. I know this stuff is going to stick in your craw, but little of it affects your country’s future.
I mentioned that you shouldn’t ‘sweat the small stuff.’ Some of the points might sound like a big deal. Like prohibiting ‘Nazi ideology’ in Ukraine. And adopting ‘EU rules on religious tolerance and linguistic minorities.’ That’s pretty much window dressing for Moscow. Having the Russian language and Russian church regain official status is not horrendous.
In fact, the plan’s glass is at least one-third full for you guys. Confirming your sovereignty. Russia expected not to invade you again. You will receive reliable security guarantees. Rebuilding pledges and humanitarian promises. They are all good. Just nail down the specifics. Get all sides to commit for sure.
Now to three of the points which cross your red line, according to analysts.
Like handing over the rest of the eastern Donetsk region to Russia even though Moscow’s troops haven’t even taken it. The region is referred to as a demilitarized zone in the plan. A ‘DMZ’ a la the divider between North and South Korea. Well, hold them to that. No troops from either side. Tough security on both sides. A neutral body running things. And see if you can get them to not call it Russian!
Then there’s the reduction by a third of your military. Troop strength limited to 600,000. That’s a huge cut, but it’s still not a bad-sized force. That is if … it was properly trained, well-armed and finely-positioned. Guarantees are needed for all of this to happen.
And then there’s the other red line: No NATO troops in Ukraine. That would seem to scupper the plan to have foreign peacekeepers on the ground, which has been in the works, to monitor the peace. A possible compromise? They’re stationed around Ukraine’s borders, surveillance keeps a close eye on things and rapid-response forces are at the ready.
There are also a few ‘gimmes’ for the U.S. in all this, like sharing in the profits of reconstruction. But that’s the price of doing business with President Trump.
As for that Thanksgiving deadline to sign the deal? The president has already signaled he’s willing to let that slide if there’s talking.
And that other deadline? One hundred days until a new election? I know it’s a tough time for you politically with those corruption charges getting near. It might be something you have to live with.
Anyway, for what it’s worth, that’s my take.
Negotiations will probably sink on any hard discussion of any of these main points. But you know what the old adage is: ‘Jaw-jaw’ is better than ‘war-war.’
For the proud people of Ukraine who have suffered so much during this time, it’s worth your best shot.
Sincerely,
Greg