Tariffs have thrown the stock market into dizzying moves, moving up and/or down based on whatever news headlines circulate. The broader stock market indexes have all declined, although they are holding on to their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) fell below the average on Tuesday, but recovered on Wednesday and closed above it.
Looking at weekly performance, Real Estate, Health Care, and Consumer Staples are the top three S&P sector performers. These sectors fall under the defensive category, which suggests that investor uncertainty is still in the air. Gold and silver prices are rising, an indication of risk-off sentiment.
The Mag 7 Breakdown
Investors were flocking to the Mag 7 stocks not too long ago, but this is no longer the case. The daily chart of the Roundhill Big Tech ETF (MAGS), a basket of the Mag 7 stocks, illustrates that this group of stocks has technically broken down.
FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF ROUNDHILL BIG TECH ETF (MAGS). The ETF which holds all the Mag 7 stocks has broken down. However, it bounced off its 200-day simple moving average, and the relative strength index stayed above the 30 level.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Note that despite the downward trend, MAGS managed to bounce off its 200-day SMA. The relative strength index (RSI) didn’t dip below 30. Does this mean the Mag 7 could bounce back? Semiconductor stocks were up two days in a row, which may have helped MAGS stay afloat. But semiconductors are vulnerable to tariffs, so why are these stocks showing green shoots? It’s a very challenging market and I would monitor the MAGS chart daily. You wouldn’t want to miss out on a strong upside move.
Change is in the Air
President Trump’s tariffs have stirred the pot and caused shifts in investor sentiment. International stocks are gaining momentum, something we haven’t seen in a long time. The weekly chart below summarizes the performance of US stocks against the rest of the world.
FIGURE 2. US VS. THE REST OF THE WORLD. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF which consists of large growth US stocks is declining in performance against international stocks.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
It’s also worth noting the performance of the US dollar. The US dollar plunged and is now trading below its 200-day SMA. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are showing signs of gaining strength against the US dollar (see chart below).
FIGURE 3. THE WEAKENING US DOLLAR. After tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico were implemented, the US dollar started to weaken against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The Bottom Line
Now’s a good time to test your patience. It’s not exactly the type of market you want to open long positions. It’s more of a “wait and see” type of market. We’ll get the February jobs report on Friday, but how much it’ll impact the market is unclear. With investors focused on tariffs, the jobs report may be brushed off, unless it comes in vastly different than the forecast. Expect more volatility in the weeks ahead.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.