The global uranium market is entering what industry leaders describe as a pivotal phase, with strengthening nuclear demand colliding with tightening supply and rising geopolitical competition for fuel.
At the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention in Toronto, an executive from Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ) and an analyst from UxC warned that the nuclear fuel cycle is undergoing a structural shift; one that could reshape uranium pricing and supply security over the coming decades.
During a presentation titled “Reviving the Nuclear Life Cycle,’ Grant Isaac, president and COO of Cameco, said the market often underestimates uranium demand because much of it is driven by long-term government and utilities agreements that are negotiated outside the public market.
“The sovereign interest in where nuclear fuel is coming from over a very long period of time is probably one of the most unrecognized pieces of uranium demand out there,” he said.
Unlike most commodities, uranium is rarely traded through large spot exchanges. Instead, utilities typically secure fuel years in advance through long-term contracts tied to reactor operations.
“Uranium is a product for which there is no substitute,” Isaac said.
“We don’t produce uranium to dump into a spot market or to sell to a smelter or metals exchange. That’s not how our market works … the market works on long-term planning tied directly to reactor demand.”
Nuclear expansion reshaping uranium demand
The global nuclear fleet currently includes roughly 441 reactors generating about 400 gigawatts of electricity, according to data from UxC. By 2040, that capacity could grow to more than 580 gigawatts as new reactors come online and existing units receive license extensions.
China alone operates about 60 reactors and has another 38 under construction, representing nearly 40 gigawatts of additional capacity. India is also expanding rapidly as part of its energy security strategy.
Elsewhere, nuclear demand is being supported by reactor restarts in Japan and steady generation in France, as well as new projects in the US and across Central and Eastern Europe.
Isaac noted that many reactors originally slated for closure are now being upgraded and extended, adding new fuel requirements that were not anticipated just a few years ago. Utilities are investing in upgrades that can boost output by 50 to 100 megawatts per reactor, he said — changes that require additional uranium.
“That alone is significant demand for uranium that nobody was talking about three or four years ago,” Isaac said.
Uranium supply challenges intensifying
While demand is strengthening, speakers at PDAC warned that uranium supply faces a range of structural constraints, from geopolitical disruptions to project development risks.
Nick Carter, executive vice president at UxC, said Asia will account for much of that demand growth, particularly in China and India. In terms of supply, global uranium production totaled about 173 million pounds in 2025, according to UxC. The largest producer was Kazakhstan, followed by Canada, Namibia and Australia.
Yet even with new projects planned, UxC forecasts significant deficits beginning around 2030.
“We do start seeing supply gaps starting around 2030 and extending through 2040. Filling that gap will be quite challenging,’ Carter said. Several factors are complicating the supply outlook.
Political instability has already disrupted production in parts of Africa. In 2023, the government of Niger took control of uranium assets previously operated by French nuclear group Orano.
“That is material that used to come into the west that is not coming into the west anymore,” Isaac said.
At the same time, China has aggressively secured uranium supply through overseas investments and long-term contracts. Carter estimates that the Asian nation now controls or has access to nearly 40 percent of global primary uranium production through imports and equity stakes in foreign mines.
“China imported nearly 70 million pounds of open market supply last year,” Carter said, adding that large volumes of Russian material are also being redirected to Chinese buyers.
New mines need higher incentive prices
Despite strong demand fundamentals, uranium prices have not yet fully reflected tightening supply conditions across the nuclear fuel cycle. Downstream services such as enrichment and conversion have already experienced significant price increases, Isaac said, suggesting the uranium market itself could follow.
“We need to see price discovery in our industry,” he said, adding that the era of extremely cheap uranium is likely over.
“We’re out of US$20 uranium, and we’re probably out of US$40,” he said. “And I think we’re running out of US$80.”
Higher uranium prices may ultimately be required to incentivize new mines and ensure long-term fuel availability for the expanding nuclear sector.
“If we treat nuclear fuel as the long-lead item that it actually is,” Isaac said, “Then the industry can transition smoothly into this period of growth.” Otherwise, he warned, the market may face a more abrupt reset.
“It will reset,” he said. “But it may reset more violently than any of us would like.”
Uranium prices enter new phase of volatility
Also speaking at PDAC, Treva Klingbiel, president of TradeTech, said the uranium market is entering a new phase marked by stronger prices and increasing volatility. She noted that uranium prices have historically moved in pronounced “supercycles,” a pattern visible in price data dating back to the late 1960s.
The most recent cycle has been particularly dramatic, she said, highlighting how the market has rebounded from the prolonged downturn that followed the Fukushima accident.
In 2016, uranium prices fell to a low of about US$17.75 per pound as early reactor closures, production costs well above market prices and supportive policies for gas and renewable energy weighed heavily on the sector.
Since then, the market has staged a sharp recovery.
“Since that low point, the price has more than quintupled,” Klingbiel said.
Today, TradeTech’s daily spot price sits around US$85, while the long-term contract price has climbed to about US$90. She added that TradeTech’s exchange value, a monthly pricing indicator, briefly reached US$100 in late January, a level that has been recorded only a handful of times since the firm began tracking uranium prices in 1968.
Looking ahead, Klingbiel said the uranium industry is now grappling with how quickly supply and demand can respond to geopolitical and policy shifts. In her view, the velocity is ‘very different from the past.’
Recent political developments, particularly shifting trade policies and evolving alliances, have already disrupted longstanding nuclear fuel supply chains. While some government initiatives are boosting nuclear power, other policies have placed pressure on available supply of uranium and enrichment services.
Limited investment over the past decade has contributed to what TradeTech views as a widening structural deficit.
“The demand is there,” Klingbiel told listeners at PDAC.
“What we need now is the capital to develop new production to bridge that supply gap.”
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.