The growing use of weight-loss injections could dent demand for sausage rolls and pastries at Greggs, potentially depriving the bakery chain of some of its most lucrative customers, according to City analysts.
The warning comes as Greggs continues to grapple with slower sales growth since mid-2024, a period that has prompted investor speculation over whether the UK has reached “peak Greggs”. The company has attributed its softer performance to fragile consumer confidence and last summer’s unusually hot weather, which reduced footfall, while some shareholders have questioned whether its rapid store expansion has begun to cannibalise like-for-like sales.
Analysts at Jefferies have now added another potential headwind: the rising popularity of weight-loss drugs such as Mounjaro and Wegovy. In a note to clients, the broker said the trend could represent an “enduring challenge” for Greggs and weigh on its longer-term growth prospects.
The drugs work by mimicking the GLP-1 hormone, which suppresses appetite and increases feelings of fullness. Jefferies pointed to US research suggesting that users of such treatments tend to cut back particularly on high-calorie, ultra-processed savoury foods, a category that includes many of Greggs’ core products.
The analysts estimate that as many as four million people in the UK may now be using weight-loss jabs, equivalent to around 7.5 per cent of the adult population.
“It may only be 10 per cent of GLP-1 users that would shop at Greggs,” the Jefferies team said. “But that 10 per cent would be high-BMI individuals consuming lots of calories and, we would infer, likely some of Greggs’ best customers. Those customers could go from being among the most valuable to potentially never spending a penny with the business again.”
Roisin Currie, Greggs’ chief executive, acknowledged last month that there was “no doubt” weight-loss injections were having an impact on consumer behaviour. In response, the chain has begun expanding its healthier ranges, including products such as egg pots, to reflect shifting preferences.
Despite those efforts, Jefferies said the spread of weight-loss drugs should be seen as a “structural issue” rather than a passing trend. The broker cut its forecasts for Greggs’ like-for-like sales growth and profit margins and downgraded the stock to “hold” from “buy”, underlining the growing uncertainty facing one of Britain’s most recognisable high-street brands.
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Weight-loss jabs threaten Greggs’ growth, analysts warn