Even with an impressive run of relative performance thus far in 2025, some investors still remain skeptical of gold’s uptrend. Let’s look at the performance of gold through three different angles, all using the best practices of technical analysis.
Gold Has Dramatically Outperformed in 2025
Whether you think gold has merit as a store of value, as a safe haven, or for no reason at all, there is no denying that gold has registered much stronger returns than stocks so far in 2025.
The S&P 500 index is now down about 4.0% for the year, even with Friday’s strong finish to the week. The Roundhill Big Tech ETF (MAGS) is down 12.4%, while the growth-heavy Nasdaq 100 is down about 6.2%. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), meanwhile, is up another 13.7% in 2025 after an exceptionally strong 2024.
There have been a number of times over my career where people have pushed back when gold is doing well. They have claimed that it’s just an anomaly, or that it shouldn’t go higher because of some particular reason. My answer is always to bring up the chart and remind us both, “The market doesn’t care what we think!”
Gold Prices Remain in a Primary Uptrend
Let’s break down gold’s outperformance in greater detail using a daily chart of GLD. At a time when many stocks and ETFs have broken below moving average support, gold stands out as remaining above two upward-sloping moving averages.
GLD has featured two clear consolidation phases since the end of 2023, one from April to July of 2024, and the other from October through December 2024. In both cases, the ETF bounced off price support a number of times before eventually resolving these patterns to the upside. Consolidations are very common in long-term bullish phases. What’s important is that the uptrend continues after the price exits the range, as we’ve often seen recently with GLD.
We can also apply our proprietary Market Trend Model to gold prices, which can help us to better compare the trend in gold to other ETFs and indexes. We can see that the GLD is currently bullish on all three time frames, compared to the S&P 500, which is now bearish on the short-term and medium-term time frames. When stocks are in a confirmed downtrend, I prefer to look for things that remain in primary uptrends, and gold fits the bill.
Gold Stocks Are Catching Up to Physical Gold
I’m often asked whether it’s better to play gold using an ETF that holds physical gold versus one that offers exposure to gold stocks. By focusing on the relative performance of gold stocks compared to gold futures, we can perhaps identify where opportunities could lie going forward.
Here we’re showing the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), along with RSI and then the relative performance of GDX vs. GLD. When that ratio is sloping higher, gold stocks are outperforming physical gold. Going into the end of last year, the GLD was outperforming as gold stocks experienced a significant pullback. But, so far in 2025, we’ve noticed a strong reversal in relative performance which shows gold stocks are performing better.
The GDX is now testing its October 2024 high around $43.50, and we would consider a confirmed break above this level as an additional sign that gold stocks could continue a “catch up trade” versus physical gold. And with so many gold stocks starting to appear in the top decile of the StockCharts Technical Rating (SCTR), we see this as an area of emerging strength in the weeks to come.
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RR#6,
Dave
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David Keller, CMT
President and Chief Strategist
Sierra Alpha Research LLC
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
Disclosures: Author holds position in GLD.